Venemaa sõjaline võimekus ja armeereform(id)

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Re: Venemaa sõjaline võimekus ja armeereform(id)

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CITeam hindas venelaste tehnikaliikumisi Ukraina piiri ääres.
https://citeam.org/troops-near-ukrainian-border.html?7

Transpordilennukitest harjutatakse pommitamist ja pardakahurist laskmist maismaasihtmärkide pihta
Video of Il-76 transport aircraft dropping P-50T practice bombs and engaging ground targets with their rear-facing GSh-23 23mm cannons at the Kushalino training area in Tver.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1463500149645217792

BML-i morpehha sai uued AK-12 automaadid
"Военнослужащие соединения морской пехоты Балтийского флота перевооружаются на новые автоматы АК-12. Новое стрелковое оружие заменило ранее стоявшие на вооружении морпехов автоматы АК-74М", - заявили в пресс-службе.
Там отметили, что новые автоматы Калашникова поступили в десантно-штурмовое и разведывательное подразделения морской пехоты.
"Партия АК-12 поступила "черным беретам" в рамках программы перевооружения флота. В настоящее время военнослужащие приступили к пристрелке и приведению оружия к

https://www.militarynews.ru/story.asp?r ... 69&lang=RU

Lõuna SVR-i lennuvägi harjutas laevade ründamist
Southern Military District Su-27SM3 and Su-30M2 fighters conducted an exercise with the Vasily Bykov and other ships in the Black Sea, which included targeting ship

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1463421373494308864

Veidi lugemist-Armeiski sbornik-september 2021
https://army.ric.mil.ru/upload/site175/s8zEfA5v6F.pdf
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Re: Venemaa sõjaline võimekus ja armeereform(id)

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Vene sõjaväe logistika võimekusest kirjutab WarOnTheRocks. Seal ka Baltikumi suunaline analüüs tehtud.
While the Russian army definitely has the combat power to achieve these scenarios, does Russia have the logistics force structure to support these operations? The short answer is not in the timelines envisioned by Western wargames. In an initial offensive — depending on the fighting involved — Russian forces might reach early objectives, but logistics would impose requirements for operational pauses. As a result, a large land grab is unrealistic as a fait accompli. The Russian army has the combat power to capture the objectives envisioned in a fait accompli scenario, but it does not have the logistic forces to do it in a single push without a logistical pause to reset its sustainment infrastructure. The Russian Aerospace Forces (with a sizable tactical bomber and attack aircraft force) and attack helicopters can also pick up fire support to alleviate artillery ammunition consumption.

There are serious logistic challenges with large-scale fait accompli operations in the Baltics. Small scale fait accompli operations are feasible with small forces without a logistical challenge but on a large scale are far more challenging. Fait accompli requires Russian forces to overrun Baltic states and eliminate all resistance in less than 96 hours — before NATO’s Very High Readiness Task Force can reinforce the defenders. This force won’t stop a Russian attack, but it commits NATO to a land war, negating the very purpose of fait accompli.

https://warontherocks.com/2021/11/feedi ... logistics/
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Re: Venemaa sõjaline võimekus ja armeereform(id)

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Ülevaade Vene vägedest Ukraina piiridel. Valgevene suunal on 3 VDV diviisi üksuseid. Välja kujunemas üsna huvitav seis.
Elements deployed there include three VDV (airborne divisions) along with the 2nd Motor Rifle Division of the 1st GTA. Why did they place all of these units there? No idea. Although the text above the units says that these formations were deployed to Belarus during Zapad-2021, I think it is too far-fetched at this point to assume they’ll be again deployed there now. Also, at present, there are no indications of any Russian units on the move towards Belarus. Nevertheless, if the 2nd MRD is to go there, I expect it to happen relatively soon.

To sum up, apart from strange deployments to Belarus and a high number of BTGs in Crimea, my BTG count corresponds with what is on the map.

My BTG count: 29

Kyiv’s BTG count: 40. The largest difference comes from me not including the LPR and DPR forces and the difference in the number of BTGs deployed to Crimea.

I also want to stress that it is too early to say whether the attack (if it happens) will look like this. Russian forces are still prepositioning. The current concentration areas are in Crimea and near Valuyki. Belarus appears quiet. So does Pogonovo.

The situation is dynamic.

Pilt
http://rochan-consulting.com/the-map-th ... elligence/
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Re: Venemaa sõjaline võimekus ja armeereform(id)

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SEPKA-Vene allveelaevad lahkusid kiirkorras Kamtšatkal asuvatest sadamatest
Reports in Russian outlets that Russian subs sailed out hastily from bases.

Source is not very credible so needs further info, just heads up and keep an eye on this.

https://twitter.com/akihheikkinen/statu ... 2270645248
Российские атомные подводные лодки, базирующиеся в Вилючинске, экстренно отправлены в море. Об этом сообщает портал avia.pro. В «MilitaryMaps» сообщается, что на фоне обострения ситуации между Россией и НАТО все АПЛ Тихоокеанского флота ВМФ РФ в состоянии боеготовности покинули места дислокации и вышли на боевые дежурства. Такая ситуация наблюдается на нескольких российских базах. В отношении военно-морской базы в Вилючинске на Камчатке имеются снимки со спутников, которые подтверждают информацию о том, что АПЛ поочередно в течение нескольких дней покинули базу.

АПЛ проектов 955 «Борей», 955А «Борей-А» и 949А «Антей» начали оперативно покидать место своего постоянного базирования и выходить в море, теряясь на просторах Мирового океана с начала этого месяца, говорится в сводках систем GPS слежения. Подробности такого массового выхода в море российских атомных подлодок в министерстве обороны РФ не комментируют.

https://fbm.ru/novosti/politics/apl-vmf ... hatke.html
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Re: Venemaa sõjaline võimekus ja armeereform(id)

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Tehnikat tassitakse üha juurde.
Krimmi sõidab „puhkama“ 34. üksik motolaskur(mägi)brigaad.
https://twitter.com/Jose_Pinoche/status ... 7466226711
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Re: Venemaa sõjaline võimekus ja armeereform(id)

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Venemaa liigutab viimasel ajal päris palju tehnikat pimedas

Ivanovos asuv dessantdiviisi tehnika
So apparently those are the elements of the 98th Guards Airborne Division from Ivanovo. Recognized by tactical signs.

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status ... 2039467008
https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status ... 0563938306
Brjanski lähedal ešelon
https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status ... 6964126721
Brjanski lähedal veel teinegi.
https://twitter.com/4emberlen/status/14 ... 6195462146
Moskva lähedal
https://twitter.com/4emberlen/status/14 ... 1236794368
Volgogradi oblastis
https://twitter.com/KyleJGlen/status/14 ... 3560357895


Hüpotees, et osa sellest tehnikast jõuab Harkivi suunale, kuna sealsed üksused ei ole oma kodubaasides kasvanud. Kuhugi aga tehnika liigub.
Based on the number of trains apparently headed to this area, and the lack of changes in the garrisons of the 20th CAA units permanently stationed there, I believe we are looking at a potential undetected consentration of forces in the area indicated.

Pilt
https://twitter.com/The_Lookout_N/statu ... 2380626954


EDIT 19:50
https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status ... 2145492994
https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status ... 2947224577
Ešelon tanke
https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status ... 7370509329
Viimati muutis ruger, 28 Nov, 2021 19:52, muudetud 2 korda kokku.
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Re: Venemaa sõjaline võimekus ja armeereform(id)

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Pakutakse võimaluseks et,
on kolm grupeeringut..Põhjaosa lõikab ära Kiievi, keskne Dnipropetrovski ja lõunaosa Dnepri kitsaima osa.
https://twitter.com/The_Lookout_N/statu ... 2380626954
Manused
Vene vägede paiknemised Ukraina piiri läheduses.jpg
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Re: Venemaa sõjaline võimekus ja armeereform(id)

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Hakassiast(Baikalist 1200km läänes asuv haldusüksus) liigutatakse UKR suunale? GRU brigaadi üksuseid
While not close to Ukraine, this in an interesting load. the unit appears to use the Tigr MRAP as their primary vehicle. The most likely candidate around Hakassia is the 24th Special Purpose Brigade, GRU.
https://twitter.com/pmakela1/status/1465311931561123852

Veel üks tankiüksus Belgorodi piirkonnas
Russian T-72B main battle tanks and IMR-1 combat engineering vehicles. Not exactly top tier unit, but one more arriving to the areas near to Ukraine.
https://twitter.com/pmakela1/status/1465296926518259712

Venemaa korraldab suured õppused Valgevenega Ukraina piiri ääres. Valgevene üksused liiguvad juba ja Venemaa omad on ka kohal. Lisaks on neid igapäevaselt juurde tulemas.
Reports are coming that as early as today the entire Belarusian 6th Tank Brigade is due to start moving from Grodno, where it is normally based, to the border with Ukraine.
https://twitter.com/pmakela1/status/1465288355235643395
https://maailm.postimees.ee/7380469/val ... eele-saata

Iroonia-Valgevene kaitseminister mainib, et NATO koondab oma üksuseid Valgevene läänepiirile ja ise viib oma parima tankiüksuse ära Ukraina piirile.
BELARUSIAN DEFENCE MINISTER SAYS NATO IS BUILDING UP OFFENSIVE CAPABILITIES OF ARMED FORCES NEAR BELARUS' BORDERS - BELTA -rtrs

"Nato is threatening our western border so we redeploy our finest tank brigade to the southern border!"
https://twitter.com/akihheikkinen/statu ... 4891212800

Valgevene lubab Luka sõnade järgi Donbassis võimaliku sõjategevuse korral selgelt Venemaa poolel olla
Lukashenko said Belarus will not remain on the sidelines if there is a new war in the Donbas, "and it is clear whose side we will be on."

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1465311079790174217

Venemaa hakkab sulgema Ukraina suunalisi piiripunkte tsiviilisikute liikumiseks.
Thread. Russia closing off border area with Ukraine from civilians.

No civvies, no eyes nor cameras. Russian military sure ain't just camping there.
https://twitter.com/akihheikkinen/statu ... 3370725382
30km closed zone, 24hrs patrolling. Access only from designated areas and with id documents.

Unknow how badly residents of the area are affected. Decree was issued on 22th.
https://twitter.com/akihheikkinen/statu ... 6258955264
Press service of the border department of the FSB of the Russian Federation in the Belgorod and Voronezh regions announced this on November 22nd. The closure is "in order to create the necessary conditions for the protection of the state border"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NSNcwcF6mqw
https://twitter.com/MarQs__/status/1465352719170953216
Only local residents or those have permission will be allowed in this area, which also means no access for journalists.
https://twitter.com/MarQs__/status/1465355275884548097
Russia has set up checkpoints between Boguchar and Kantemirovska. Military equipment was spotted moving in the fields nearby. The district administration assured that the appearance of the armored personnel carriers was not connected with any emergency situation.
https://twitter.com/MarQs__/status/1465344206751387655
Ainus, mida me ajaloost õpime, on see, et keegi ei õpi ajaloost midagi.
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Re: Venemaa sõjaline võimekus ja armeereform(id)

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Vene armee logistilise võimekuse ja võimaluste analüüs. Eraldi on vaadeldud Baltikumi ja Poola suundi. Mõlemas suunas on omad võimalused ja on ka omad probleemid.
Nii ühel, kui teisel juhul suuri territooriume venelased väga kiiresti enda kätte haarata ei suuda, sest ei saa tagada piisavat logistilist toetust pealetungivatele üksustele.

Vene keeles:
https://bmpd.livejournal.com/4437511.html

Algallikas inglise keeles:
https://warontherocks.com/2021/11/feeding-the-bear-a-closer-look-at-russian-army-logistics/
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Re: Venemaa sõjaline võimekus ja armeereform(id)

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Venemaa on hakanud blokeerima ja tühistama vagunite transpordi lehtedel Gdevagon.ru asuvaid kontosid, mis võimaldab otsida, kust vagunid pärit on, kuhu suunduvad ja kes on tellija. Mitmeid kontosid on järjest viimastel päevadel kinni pandud ning uued kontod, mis tehtud samuti suletud. Viimastel otsingutel oli näha Ida SVR-i üksuste koonumine Ukraina suunale.
On Monday, we spotted a video of a train carrying trucks and Tigr armored cars somewhere in Russia. We logged in to GdeVagon railcar tracking database — only to find our account effectively blocked.

Other fellow researchers reported similar issues yesterday.

We did have a spare account, which gave us the train's route from Abakan in Siberia to Elnya, where the vehicles of the 41st Army are currently based.

Soon, that account was blocked too.

We believe the unit to be the 55th Motorized Brigade based in Kyzyl. It is also part of the 41st Army, which seems to be still moving to Western Russia from its bases in Siberia.

Coupled with the attempts to hide the movements, this is extremely concerning.

https://twitter.com/CITeam_en/status/14 ... 5760644098
I can confirm that my account also seems to be blocked after searching for a train transporting military vehicles. I will only be drinking tea that I make from now on.

https://twitter.com/KyleJGlen/status/14 ... 0389281795

Venelaste Losharik tüüpi eriotstarbelistest allveelaevadest ja nende võimekusest kirjutab H.I. Sutton
https://news.usni.org/2021/11/30/russia ... sea-future

Vene tehnikat liigub ešelonide kaupa Ukraina suunas(videos olev kiri-igapäevaselt liigub mitmeid ešelone Ukraina suunas)
https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status ... 6832920578

Rostovi piirkonnas EW süsteem Krassuhha 4
https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status ... 1188362252
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Re: Venemaa sõjaline võimekus ja armeereform(id)

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Venelaste sisuliselt kogu Balti mere laevastik läks merele
Large increase in BALFLT activity coming up:

"The crews of the ships of the Baltic Fleet practice combat training missions in the basing areas"

"over 50 ships and support ships"

"the ships of the Baltic Fleet will enter the naval training grounds"

https://twitter.com/The_Lookout_N/statu ... 1621681152


ISW räägib DNR-is toimunud mobilisatsioonist, mida viis läbi Vene 8. üldvägede armee
“Russia has been decreasing bandwidth on railways for commercial firms since Oct., which might suggest logistical preparations for war. ISW also recorded mobilization of Donbas militant reserve forces under guidance of Russia’s 8th Combined Arms Army.”

https://twitter.com/Euan_MacDonald/stat ... 8423877642
The storm is thickening — the Kremlin keeps advancing new threats of a full-fledged invasion of Ukraine in the near future.

According to numerous reports from the intelligence community and media, Russia has currently concentrated between 94,000 and 100,000 combat-ready troops in close proximity to the Ukrainian border.

Russia upped the stakes on Dec. 1. President Vladimir Putin demanded for NATO to guarantee that it wouldn’t expand to include Ukraine. On the same day, the Kremlin launched military exercises with 10,000 troops in the country’s Southern Military District adjacent to Ukraine, as well as the Russian-occupied Crimea.

Right now, nobody can say for sure whether this is bluff.

What if the Kremlin does decide to invade Ukraine? Here’s what the intelligence and expert community think can happen.

What would the new war’s first hours look like?

Speaking to the Military Times on Nov. 21, Ukraine’s military intelligence Chief Brigade General Kyrylo Budanov said Russia is probably preparing to launch a new blitzkrieg in late January or early February.

The first step would likely include massive psychological warfare action, such as instigating “unrest, through protests and meetings” to undermine the country’s ability to fight back, the general told the Military Times.

The military action would likely involve airstrikes, artillery, and armor attacks followed by airborne assaults in Ukraine’s east, as well as amphibious offensives in Odesa and Mariupol, according to the Ukrainian intelligence.

On top of that, a smaller advance may be expected across the northwestern border with Belarus.

The outlet published a map by Ukraine’s military intelligence showing the most probable Russian strike directions coming from occupied Donbas, Crimea, and Russia’s southwestern regions bordering Ukraine.

The blitz may be aimed at seizing most of Ukraine’s territory east of the Dnipro River, as well as the Black Sea coastline.

According to Ukrainian intelligence, as of Nov. 20 Russia had deployed 40 battalion tactical groups, including 94,000 troops, 1,200 tanks, 2,900 armored fighting vehicles, 1,600 artillery pieces, 330 airplanes, 240 helicopters, 75 maritime vessels, and six submarines.

Right now, according to intelligence, Russia is able to immediately deploy at least 3,500 airborne and special operations troops.

This whole force may soon rush into Ukraine.

According to General Budanov, nasty winter weather would not be a significant obstacle to the Russian troops or the Ukrainian defenders.

Is a full-scale invasion the only scenario of escalation?

Not at all.

According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a Washington D.C.-based think-tank, there are three potential scenarios: Russia’s massive military deployment to Belarus to counter an alleged NATO invasion, a massive deployment to Donbas against an alleged Ukrainian attack — and a full-scale invasion beyond Crimea and Donbas, which is envisaged by the Ukrainian intelligence.

The ISW considers the full-scale offensive the least likely of the possible scenarios.

What are other signs of Russia preparing for escalation?

In its Nov. 30 report, the ISW reported an increase of Russian command and control elements in Donbas or southern or western Russia near the Russian-Ukrainian border in November.

Russia has also been seen decreasing its bandwidth on railways for commercial enterprises since October, which might also potentially suggest logistical preparations for war. The ISW has also recorded the mobilization of the Donbas militant reserve forces under the guidance of Russia’s 8th Combined Arms Army.

If Russia is preparing so thoroughly, why is the full-scale invasion less likely than other scenarios?

The ISW is not recording many crucial indicators of a full-fledged, combined arms operation being prepared by Russia.

In particular, the Russian troops concentrated at the border seemingly fall short of the mobilization of artillery at the regiment and brigade level. The same goes for airborne forces and the Caspian Sea elements in the Black Sea.

And the migrant crisis in Belarus is intensifying, probably to set conditions for a Russian military deployment in Belarus, as the ISW estimates. But so far, as of late November, no additional Russian ground forces have been seen being deployed to Belarus.

And last but not least, the ISW does not indicate the mobilization of the Russian Strategic Rocket Forces, in other words, the nuclear stockpile, which is also might be “an indicator that an operation is imminent or already underway.”

https://kyivindependent.com/if-russia-l ... d-that-be/
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Re: Venemaa sõjaline võimekus ja armeereform(id)

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Venemaa üksused Ukraina piiri ääres. Veel üks kaart ja infot.
This image by @tweetsNV illustrates the disposition of Russian military near Ukraine borders: 115,000 soldiers, 40 battalion tactical groups, 1200 tanks, 2900 armoured vehicles, 1600 artillery systems, 28 missile complexes, 330 planes, 240 helicopters, 75 ships, 6 submarines

Pilt
https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status ... 5491128322
https://nv.ua/ukr/ukraine/politics/rosi ... 99298.html
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Re: Venemaa sõjaline võimekus ja armeereform(id)

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Vene 1. kaardiväe tankiarmee Tamani diviisil mobilisatsiooniõppus. Tavaliselt on see kõik lahinguvalmiduse kontrolli nimetuse all.
The word mobilization is something that the Russian training bulletins use very sparingly. Even snap drill to full combat readiness are usually not called that, even though they are actually that.

"A mobilization training session with gunners of the KPVT of the Taman Motorized Rifle Division began in the Moscow region"

Had to check the wording in Russian here, and yes, the press release does say mobilization training in the 2nd GMRD / 1st GTA...

https://function.mil.ru/news_page/count ... 997@egNews

https://twitter.com/pmakela1/status/1466753323890102275

Krimmis treenivad Mustamere laevastiku merejalaväelased
500 #Russia|n Black Sea Fleet Marines have begun exercises at training ranges in #Crimea - TASS

https://twitter.com/MarQs__/status/1466689407415635973
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Re: Venemaa sõjaline võimekus ja armeereform(id)

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Lõuna SVR-is suurte juhtide kokkusaamine.
"Effective methods for the operational creation of groupings of troops in operational areas will be discussed at the meeting with the command staff of the Southern Military District"

"More than 300 officers and generals will be involved"

https://twitter.com/The_Lookout_N/statu ... 8909375488

Krimmis liigub brigaadi juhtimispunkti sideüksus
https://twitter.com/pmakela1/status/1467036475191705608

700 Lääne SVR-i täpsuslaskjat harjutamas.
More than 700 snipers from the Western Military District are conducting training exercises in Voronezh, Belgorod, Bryansk, and Smolensk, including with Strelets-M KRUS systems, which are used to transmit target coordinates for air/arty strikes.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1467143272929939460
Ainus, mida me ajaloost õpime, on see, et keegi ei õpi ajaloost midagi.
Live for nothing or die for something.
Kui esimene kuul kõrvust mõõda lendab, tuleb vastu lasta.
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Kasutajad foorumit lugemas: Registreeritud kasutajaid pole ja 12 külalist