"Russia's red lines have shifted: it is no longer Ukraine in NATO that is a red line, but NATO in Ukraine that is a new red line," Frolov said.
https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/statu ... 0663204868
Venemaalt tuli L/DNR-i uus humanitaarabi kolonn
Russia|n convoy of the Ministry of Emergency Situations of Russia with humanitarian aid arrived in #Luhansk this morning
https://twitter.com/MarQs__/status/1463791809671405568
Konrad Muzyka hinnang Vene vägede koondumisele, on 3 nädalaga muutunud.
Changes in the Russian force structure near Ukraine and continuous efforts to preposition equipment near the border have shifted my views on Russian moves from "slightly concerning" three weeks ago, to "there is a build-up occurring aimed at Ukraine".
https://twitter.com/konrad_muzyka/statu ... 1677986817
Having analysed all the evidence that has appeared since early November, and over the last few days, in particular, I must admit that the build-up is indeed occurring and that it is aimed at Ukraine. Russia seeks to create (army) groupings at selected axes, which will ultimately be able to conduct high-tempo operations against Ukraine. There are a few reasons why I think this is the case:
Over the last weeks, the Russian presence near Ukraine has increased and there are no indications the prepositioning of forces will cease;
There has not been a day where we did not see additional trains or military convoys moving towards Ukraine or Crimea. As I rely on OSINT only, I can only assume I pick up a fraction of movement that is really taking place;
The Russian Armed Forces have tightened up their op-sec. Some movements are occurring at night, which makes it almost impossible to identify units. This wasn’t the case in March-April;
The emptying of storage facilities presumably to create new units or populate existing ones with new equipment is a very ominous sign;
It appears that logistics (sub)units were activated; and
In recent days there has also been a sharp increase in anti-Ukraine and anti-NATO rhetoric coming from Moscow.
https://rochan-consulting.com/the-build-up/