Venemaa majandus ja sanktsioonid I

[ervg]

Booking.com no longer lets users book accommodation within Russia, while outside of Russia hotel search is still available.

https://t.me/pravdaGerashchenko_en/1086

[J.Nicholson]

Ühe rumalus on teise õnn.Tuumalepe Iraaniga saab allkirjad lähipäevil.Kõik sanktsioonid Iraani vastu tühistatakse.Kena,kena.
PS.
Ja ärgem nimetagem sanktsioone venemaa vastu sanktsioonideks.Tegemist on ikka erioperatsiooniga venemaa majanduses.
Shell ostab momendil venemaalt õli hinnaga 28.50$ barrel.

[Poti soldat]

sepka
tegelt ikka väga SEPKA

Ühes teises foorumis jagati, väidetav FSB analüütiku arvamus, võib ka vabalt olla puhas väljamõeldis. Siiski mõtlesin et viskaks siinsele rahvale ka lugeda:
https://telegra.ph/Ocenka-perspektiv-Ro ... journal.ru

Ingliskeelne tõlge:

"I'll be honest with you straight away: I've hardly slept all these days, I've been at work almost all the time, my head is a bit swirly, like in a fog. And from overwork, sometimes I'm already catching states as if it's all not real.

Frankly speaking, Pandora's Box is open - by summer a real horror on a global scale will start - a global famine is inevitable (Russia and Ukraine were the main suppliers of grain to the world, this year's harvest will be smaller, and logistical problems will bring the disaster to its peak).

I cannot tell you what guided the decision to operate, but now all the dogs are methodically brought down on us (the Service). We are being scolded for being analytical - this is very much in my line of work, so I will explain what is wrong.

We have been under increasing pressure lately to tailor reports to management requirements - I touched on this topic once. All these political consultants, politicians and their entourage, influence teams - it's all been creating chaos. A lot of it.

The most important thing is that nobody knew that there would be such war, they were hiding it from everybody. And here is an example: You are asked (conventionally) to calculate the possibility of human rights protection under different conditions, including an attack on prisons by meteorites. You specify the meteorites, and you are told that this is just a reinsurance for calculations, there will be nothing of the kind. You understand that the report will be just for a tick, but it should be written in a triumphant style, so that there are no questions as to why you have so many problems and whether you have not worked well. In general, you write a report that in case of a meteorite fall we have everything to eliminate the consequences, we are good, all is well. And you concentrate on tasks that are real - we do not have enough strength. And then all of a sudden they really throw meteorites and expect that everything will be according to your analytics, which were written out of the blue.

That is why we have a total fuck-up - I don't even want to choose another word for it. There is no protection from sanctions for the same reason: well, Nabiullina may well be found negligent (more likely her team's shooters), but what is their fault? No one knew there would be such a war, so no one prepared for such sanctions. That's the other side of secrecy: since no one was told about it, who could have calculated what no one had told about?

Kadyrov is losing his mind. There was almost a conflict with us: the Ukrainians may even have planted the lie that we had given up the routes of Kadyrov's special units in the first days of the operation. They were hit in the most horrific way on the march, they had not yet begun to fight, and they were simply torn apart in some places. And here we go: it was the FSB that leaked the routes to Ukrainians. I have no such information, I'll leave 1-2% to the credibility (you can't rule it out completely either).

The blitz has failed. It is simply impossible to carry out the task now: if Zelensky and government officials had been captured in the first 1-3 days, all key buildings in Kiev had been seized, and the order to surrender had been read to them - yes, the resistance would have subsided to a minimum. Theoretically. But what next? Even with this ideal option there was an unsolvable problem: with whom to negotiate? If we demolish Zelensky, well, who would we sign agreements with? If with Zelensky, then after we demolish him, these papers will be worthless. OPZJ has refused to cooperate: Medvedchuk is a coward, he ran away. There is a second leader there - Boyko, but he refuses to work with us - even his own people will not understand him. They wanted to bring Tsarev back, but even our pro-Russian ones have turned against us. Should we bring back Yanukovych? How can we do that? If you say that you cannot occupy him, then our government will be killed in 10 minutes after we come out. Occupy? Where are we going to get so many people? Commandant's office, military police, counterintelligence, guards - even with minimal resistance from locals we need 500 thousand or more people. Not counting the supply chain. And there is a rule that by overriding quantity you only ruin everything. And that, I repeat, would be under an ideal scenario, which does not exist.

What about now? We can't declare a mobilisation for two reasons:

1) A massive mobilisation would undermine the situation inside the country: political, economic, social.

2) Our logistics are already overstretched today. We will bring in many times the size of the contingent, and what will we get? Ukraine is a huge country in terms of territory. And now the level of hatred towards us is off the charts. Our roads simply cannot absorb such supply caravans - everything will come to a standstill. And we will not be able to manage it, because it is chaos.

And these two reasons are falling out at the same time, although even one is enough to make everything fail.

As for losses: I do not know how much they are. Nobody knows. The first two days there was still control, now no one knows what's going on. It's possible to lose large units from communication. They could be found, or they could be dispersed by being attacked. And even commanders may not know how many of them are running around, how many have died, how many have been taken prisoner. Definitely the death toll is in the thousands. Maybe 10 thousand, maybe 5, maybe only 2. Even the headquarters do not know exactly. But it should be closer to 10. And we are not counting the corps of the LDPR now - they have their own count.

Now even if you kill Zelensky, take him prisoner, nothing will change. Chechnya is there on the level of hatred towards us. And now even those who were loyal to us are against it. Because they were planning on the top, because we were told that such a variant will not happen, unless we are attacked. Because it was explained to us that we must create the most credible threat in order to agree peacefully on the right terms. Because we initially prepared protests inside Ukraine against Zelensky. Without considering our direct entry. An invasion, to put it simply.

Further, civilian casualties will go exponentially - and resistance to us will only intensify too. We have already tried to enter cities with infantry - out of twenty landing groups only one has had a tentative success. Just remember the storming of Mosul - it is a rule, so it was in all countries, nothing new.

To keep it under siege? Based on the experience of military conflicts in Europe in recent decades (Serbia is the largest testing ground here), cities can be besieged for years, and even be functional. It is only a matter of time before humanitarian convoys from Europe arrive there.

We have a conditional deadline of June. Conditional - because in June we have no economy, nothing left. By and large, next week there will be a tipping point on one side, simply because the situation cannot be in such overdrive. There is no analytics - you can't calculate the chaos, no one can say anything for sure here. Acting on intuition, and even on emotion - but this is not poker. The stakes will be raised, hoping that suddenly some option will shoot through. The trouble is that we too may miscalculate now and lose everything in one move.

By and large the country has no way out. Simply there is no variant of possible victory and if we lose - that's it, we are screwed. We are 100% repeating the last century, when we decided to kick weak Japan and get a quick victory, then it turned out that the army was in trouble. Then we began a war to the bitter end, then the Bolsheviks were taken away to be "re-educated" in the army - they were outcasts, uninteresting to the masses. And then nobody really knew the Bolsheviks picked up anti-war slogans and they were subjected to a lot of violence...

On the plus side: we did our best to prevent even a hint of mass sending of "fine soldiers" to the front line. Send there cons and "socially unreliable", political (so they don't muddy the waters inside the country) - the morale of the army will simply go down the drain. And the enemy is motivated, motivated monstrously. They know how to fight, they have enough mid-level commanders. They have arms. They have support. We'll just set a precedent for human losses in the world. That's all.

What we fear the most: the rule at the top is to cover up an old problem with a new one. This was largely the reason why Donbass started in 2014 - it was necessary to divert the attention of Westerners from the topic of the Russian spring in Crimea, so the Donbass crisis was supposed to draw all the attention and become a bargaining chip. But even bigger problems started there. Then they decided to sell Erdogan on the 4 pipes of South Stream and entered Syria - this after Suleimani gave deliberately false inputs to solve his problems. As a result, the Crimea issue could not be closed, there are problems with Donbass too, South Stream has shrunk to 2 pipes, and Syria is hanging by another headache (if we go in, Assad will be brought down, which will make us look like idiots, but it will be difficult and useless to sit still).

I don't know who came up with the "Ukrainian blitzkrieg". If we were given real inputs, we would at the very least point out that the original plan is moot, that there is a lot to double-check. A lot of things. Now we are up to our necks in shit. And it's not clear what to do. "Denazification" and "demilitarisation" are not analytical categories, because they do not have clearly formed parameters by which to determine the level of fulfilment or non-fulfilment of the objective.

Now we just have to wait for some fucked-up adviser to convince the top brass to start a conflict with Europe with a demand to lower some sanctions. Either they lower the sanctions or go to war. And if they refuse? Now I don't rule out that then we will get into a real international conflict like Hitler did in 1939. And we will then get our Z flattened with a swastika.

Is there a possibility of a local nuclear strike? Yes. Not for military purposes (it will do nothing - it is a defence breakthrough weapon), but to intimidate the others. At the same time the ground is being prepared to roll everything over to Ukraine - Naryshkin and his SVR are now digging the ground to prove that they have secretly built nuclear weapons there. They are chiseling away at what we have studied and analysed long ago: you cannot draw evidence on a crumpled-up machine here and having experts and uranium (Ukraine is full of depleted isotope 23 - This is about nothing. The production cycle there is such that it cannot be done unnoticed. "The fact that their old NPPs can give weapon-grade plutonium (plants like REB-1000 give it in minimum quantities as a "by-product" of reaction) - the Americans have introduced such control there with involvement of IAEA that it is silly to discuss the subject.

Do you know what will start in a week? Well, even in two weeks. We are going to be so hit that we are going to miss the hungry 90s. While the auctions have been closed, Nabiullina seems to be making normal steps - but it is like plugging a hole in a dam with a finger. It will still burst, and even harder. Nothing can be solved in three, five or ten days.

Kadyrov is hoofing it for a reason - they have their own adventures there. He's created an image of himself as the most powerful and invincible. And if he falls once, he will be brought down by his own people. He will no longer be the master of the victorious teip.

Let's move on. Syria. "The guys will hold out, everything will be over in Ukraine - and we will strengthen everything again by positions there in Syria. And now at any moment they can wait there until the contingent runs out of resources - and such a heat will go... Turkey is closing off the straits - to fly supplies there is like heating an oven with money.

Mind you, all this is happening at the same time and we do not even have time to bring everything together. We are in the same situation as Germany in '43-'44. At the start at once. Sometimes I am already lost in this overwork, sometimes it seems that everything was a dream, that everything is as it was before.

On prisons, by the way, it's going to get worse. Now they are going to tighten the screws so tight as to make them bleed. Everywhere. To be honest, purely technically it remains the only chance to hold the situation - we are already in a mode of total mobilization. But we cannot be in such a mode for long, and our timing is unclear and will only get worse for now. Mobilization always makes management lose its way. And just imagine: you can run a hundred meters in a sprint, but to go in a marathon race and sprint as hard as you can is not good. The Ukrainian issue is that we ran like a 100-metre dash and we entered a cross-country marathon.

And that is a very, very brief summary of what is going on.

From a cynical point of view, I would only add that I do not believe that VV Putin will press the red button to destroy the whole world.

First of all there is not only one person who makes a decision, at least somebody will jump out. And there are many people there - there is no "sole red button".

Secondly, there are some doubts that everything is functioning successfully there. Experience shows that the greater the transparency and control, the easier it is to identify shortcomings. And where it is not clear who controls and how, but there are always bravura reports - things are always wrong there. I am not sure that the red button system is functioning as declared. Besides, the plutonium charge has to be replaced every 10 years.

Thirdly, and most disgusting and sad, I personally do not believe in the willingness to sacrifice a man who does not let his closest representatives and ministers near him, nor members of the Federation Council. For fear of coronavirus or attack, it doesn't matter. If you are afraid to let your most trusted ones near you, how will you dare to destroy yourself and your loved ones inclusive?

If anything, ask, but I may not answer for a few days. We're in rush mode and the tasks are getting bigger.

On the whole our reports are upbeat, but everything is going wrong.

[ervg]

Cogent Communications alerted Russian customers that it would begin terminating connections at noon Eastern time on Friday

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technolo ... nt-cutoff/

[soul]

Kaugel need talongid siis veel on.
https://twitter.com/StalinGulag/status/ ... 6981017610

«Ашан» вводит ограничение по продаже товаров в одни руки.

Покупатель может приобрести не более 10 кг сахара, 10 бутылок растительного масла, 5 упаковок муки по 2 кг и 3 пачки соли.

Мы ещё умолять будем, чтобы было как в 90-х! (Ну, те, кто из нас выживут и тех, кого не посадят)

[olavsu1]

ajalootund
https://t.me/nexta_live/19773
kui paljud siit neid asju mäletavad?

Крупнейшие торговые сети Росии просят разрешить им ограничивать продажу ряда товаров с минимальной наценкой в одни руки для борьбы с перекупщиками, сообщили в Минпромторге РФ

[Kilo Tango]

124 rutsi dollari eest. Palju õnne, Vladimir!

[hjl85]

Järjekordne jaht arestitud. Väidetavalt Mordashovi oma, kes enne sanktioone oli venemaa rikkaim
https://twitter.com/idreesali114/status ... 2465793?s=

[muruniiduk]

124 rutsi dollari eest. Palju õnne, Vladimir!

Peaaegu 134

https://zenrus.ru/

[gans]

meduza.io väitel on hakatud venemaal spekuleerimise vältimiseks tarbekaupade müügikoguseid piirama.
Teine nädal...

[hjl85]

Ma pakun välja, et börssi ei tehtagi enam lahti

[okaloka]

Esmalt tänan staazhika lugejana ja Eesti eest seisjana kõiki Osint panustajaid. Teie materjalid ja ülevaated on ladusad ja annavad jõudu.

Moti kõrgel hoidmiseks tahan öelda: õige pea on miilitsate lojaalsena hoidmiseks lihtsam palka maksta seentes ja mustikates kui detsiljonites mis isegi kalkulaatori peale ära ei mahu. Kui just suvi läänest liisitud polnud....

[Rebane11]

Jlja Jasinilt väga hea lugu. Sobib nii majanduse kui Vene- Ukraina sõja alla.
Võtab lühidalt kokku mis Putinil viltu läinud.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oyaYwEkanjE&t=6s

[NGolf]

Oli enne mis oli, nüüd on puhta p*tsis. Homsest pannakse kinni 124 Louis Vuittoni poodi Venemaal. See on juba küll valus kõrgema ešeloni armukestele.
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPR/status/1499855147039657991

Soome piiril järjekorrad
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-60624500

Vene lennukompaniide Pobeda ja Aeroflot juhid olevat juba ära karanud Venemaalt, ja juba neljandal sanktsioonipäeval. Imelikult madal usk oma juhtkonda.
https://twitter.com/prof_preobr/status/1499987571832602625

Esimeste päevadega on ennast Venemaalt kas osaliselt või täielikult eemaldanud kenake nimekiri Lääne ettevõtetest


See Tšehhi diplomaadi postitus on omal kohal:

[loomake]

finantsoperatsioon mitte sanktsioonid..... 5+