FSB analüütiku kirjale on järgnenud veel kaks, dateeritud 5. märtsi, avaldatud eile. Kirub, et nende olemasolevat analüütilist võimekust ei arvestata, käsud tulevad lojaalsete lollide-poliitikute poolt ülevalt ja on sellised tõmblevad: kõik pingutused järgmise 3-5 päeva jooksul suunata olukorra stabiliseerimisele. Pärast vaatame edasi. Puudub igasugune pikk plaan, käib rapsimine. Analüütikud on kõik ületöötanud ja motivatsioon rabada on läinud. Putin suhtleb rohkem šamaanide kui asjatundjatega, sanktsioonidele reageerimine on ka planeerimatu.
Last Sunday, all forces were thrown to "ensure the stability of all processes for 3-5 days." A reasonable question: what if nothing gets better in 3-5 days? But such a question was not even allowed to be worked out - look for ways, think, work. We will survive for 3-5 days, then the situation will change for the better, we will plan for the long term. These 3-5 days have passed. It got worse. Only the approach does not change.
Now we don't have for the normal model:
- reliable information about what is happening in the Russian regions;
- reliable data on the real state of army units;
- reliable data on the military prospects of the operation (there is a whole set of data from different departments and services - one contradicts the other, which means that there is nothing);
- a well-developed model of economic management in the real conditions of the created restrictions;
- reliable information on loyalty in the financial and political elites of the country;
- reliable data on forthcoming extramers in the country.
What we have:
- a constant stream of new data on "emerging" economic problems that "should not be": partial failures in the supply chains of raw materials can stop complex processes, including the production of strategic products, the functioning of single-industry towns and industrial agglomerations;
- the expected explosive growth of banditry and crime, due to the superposition of several factors, such as: economic problems, a decrease in the mental stability of the population from stress + military psychosis + accumulated nervous state from isolation measures;
- situational planning of a political nature without calculating the long-term (and even short- and medium-term) prospects for their introduction;
- separatization of the work of services and departments with the loss of a unified management system;
- the growth of foreign policy threats, including military ones (there is no 100% guarantee that Japan will not attack the Kuriles or Georgia will not attack Ossetia-Abkhazia, Syria and Libya should prepare for attacks by our contingents);
- the impossibility (complete) of the functioning of the former economic model (there is no more stabilization fund, the exchange rate goes into turbulence, the former system of employment is impossible in principle).
With such inputs, there are no and cannot be clear forecasts - we have flown from anti-crisis management into crisis management. And to be honest, we just went into disaster mode. A catastrophe as a state is characterized by the fact that "it will not happen as it was, but we will not know how it will be until it happens."
Почему верю в Ваши действия. Нет, я не верю, что от них сократятся пытки. Но процент тех, кто прекрасно понимает перспективы происходящего достаточно высок. Среди наших тоже. И в армии такие есть. Нужны точки опоры, чтобы не чувствовать себя обреченным отщепенцем. Если сейчас еще и эту прослойку потерять - все, крышку гроба страны начнут заколачивать молотками.
Скоро все изменится. Я даже боюсь думать, как и когда точно - просто мы вошли в состояние невозможности "как раньше", а в состояние "как бы хотелось" мы не вписываемся. Мы сейчас получили классическую точку разлома внутри страны - как в "Мятежевойне" Месснера (она же в переделанном виде - "Доктрина Герасимова"). Нужны любые точки опоры, чтобы сохранить адекватность хоть в крупицах. А слетевшим с катушек - да, им уже на все побоку.
https://gulagu-net.ru/news/2022-03-10-1234.htmlhttps://gulagu-net.ru/news/2022-03-10-1235.htmlOn olemas ka neljas kiri, kõige värskem, sellest, kuidas edasi. Planeeritakse paari stsenaariumit, hetkel kõige populaarsem FSB poolt välja pakutav on see, et survestada Ukraina vaherahule, tunnustades Krimmi ja LDNRi ja kõrvaldada SBU kui organ. Ja siis paari aasta pärast panna omale sobiv valitsus Ukrainas pukki:
The “Plan for Victory” in the FSB is being painted as such:
Zelensky will be pressured into signing a fluff peace agreement recognizing Crimea as Russian, and Luhansk- and Donetsk-oblasts will become LDNR. LDNR will be the focus of our negotiators in terms of nuance, etc. But it’s just a distraction.
The key clause would be about demilitarization, which would essentially ban Ukrainian intelligence services, and most importantly counter-intelligence.
And here our people (FSB) already see the prognosis: Over a number of years, it would be possible for us (FSB) with some minimal help from the GRU (Russian Military Intelligence), to carry out a total cleansing of the socio-political field in Ukraine. And after all this, we could install any government in Kiev.
With high probability this plan will become dominant for the Kremlin with strategic correction, although the scenario is insane and aggression on other fronts is not being cancelled. In theory, the plan does have potential, but how it will be in practice is unknown. There will be no military victory, only something like this.
Lots of nuances, but most important – our side will be able to breach such agreements after they’re signed anytime, when there’s strength to turn the tide. Then it won’t be the military but the “black crows” who will be executing the “second phase,” arresting those accused of breaking the agreement from the Ukrainian side.
This scenario is not so crazy like the others, but it is completely contingent on the fact that Kiev can actually be pressured in the negotiations. We are now working the Western contacts at the highest levels – looking for countries who will support our position and to put pressure on Zelensky. It could be another bluff, it could be an analogue of Wenck’s army in our current reality. Overall, as I’ve been saying, the level of chaos here is quite high.
http://www.igorsushko.com/2022/03/china-and-russias-domestic-insanity-4th.html?m=1Osaliselt vist nende samade kirjade tõttu algasid FSB 5. osakonnas suured läbiotsimisreidid, püütakse osalt ka leket peatada. Seni on allikas veel tabamata:
Vladimir Osechin has informed me that our FSB analyst has not been compromised. I cannot disclose the specifics. Our source sends his regards to everyone (THAT'S ALL OF US!) Message: "Our work continues."
https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1502345407350730755
No ei sobi - vana trikk! 
nagu eespool kirjutati siis puudub igasugune side reaalsusega. Ning vaikselt levitatakse narratiivi, et USA meelitas Venemaa sõdima, et saaks oma naftatööstusele kasu.
