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Milline on teie prognoos 2023. aastaks? Kas sõda lõppeb?
.. Nüüd on selge, et tõeline „kurnamissõda“ läheb lahti just 2023. aastal. Selle sõjaetapi tulemus sõltub peamiselt sellest, kumb pool kohaneb paremini süveneva laskemoona „näljaga“....

Turist 47 kirjutas: ↑08 Jaan, 2023 15:20 ISW väidab, et vaatamata vene mõningasele edule Soledar-Bahmut piirkonnas on /olevat Ukraina alistamine/ümber piiramine, "täna, homme"- kui üldse, ebareaalne.

Õhukaitsejõud tulistasid 8. jaanuaril alla Vene helikopteri ja luuredrooni.
Sellest teatas Ukraina relvajõudude õhujõudude väejuhatus

"Piirivalvurid Bahmuti lähedal vallutasid vaenlase kindluse. Öösel püüdsid venelased kaotatud positsiooni tagasi saada ja tulutult. Sissetungijad löödi tagasi. Lähivõitluses hävitasid meie sõdurid 18 sissetungijat, veel 24 said haavata," seisab teates.

Venemaa kaitseministeerium teatas ulatuslikust raketirünnakust Ukraina relvajõudude sõjaväelaste ajutise paigutamise punktidele Kramatorskis.Ukrainas Donetski oblastis. Venemaa ministeeriumi väitel sai löögi tagajärjel surma üle 600 Ukraina sõjaväelase. Venemaa kaitseministeerium nimetas rünnakut "kättemaksuoperatsiooniks". Agentuuri andmetel viibis ühiselamus nr 28 üle 700 sõjaväelase ja õpilaskodus nr 47 üle 600 sõjaväelase. Ukraina pool pole arve veel kommenteerinud.

Melitopolis asuvas Hydromashi tehases, kuhu okupandid olid paigutanud sõjaväebaasi, kõlasid valjud plahvatused.

Pärast mitmeid plahvatusi Zaporižži oblasti ajutiselt okupeeritud aladel tiirlevad taevas Berdjanski ja Melitopoli kohal vaenlase lennukid.
Berdjanski linnavolikogu täitevkomitee teatas sellest Telegramis.
"Berdyani elanikud teatavad, et pärast Melitopoli ja Tokmoki lärmakat lööki tiirlevad täna linna kohal pidevalt rassistlikud helikopterid," seisab postituses.
Teadaolevalt lendavad nad Berdjanska Spiti suunas. Võimalik, et haavatuid viiakse sinna

Venemaa kaitseministeerium teatas... löögi tagajärjel sai surma üle 600 Ukraina sõjaväelase

„Kahju said 2 õppeasutust, 8 kortermaja ja paar garaaži. Ohvreid ei ole .»
(Kohalik pealik Oleksandr Goncharenko https://www.facebook.com/alexander.vasi ... oncharenko)

Vene Föderatsiooni kaitseministeerium teatas, et Kramatorski löök oli väidetavalt "kättemaks" Ukraina relvajõudude löögi eest Makiivkale.
Sellest teatab Censor.NET viitega propagandaväljaandele RIA Novosti .
"Reaktsioonina Kiievi režiimi kuritegelikule löögile jaanuari esimestel minutitel viidi läbi vastuoperatsioon Venemaa sõjaväelaste ajutise paigutamise punkti vastu Makiivka (DPR) asulas. Päeval toimusid ajutised kaitsepunktid. avati Ukraina sõjaväelaste paigutamine Kramatorskisse. Üle 700 sõjaväelase ja ühiselamus nr 47 - üle 600," seisab teates.
Vene Föderatsiooni kaitseministeeriumi teatel hukkus "massilise raketilöögi tagajärjel" väidetavalt üle 600 Ukraina sõduri.
Ööl vastu 7. ja 8. jaanuari korraldasid Vene väed Kramatorskile 7 raketirünnakut . Kannatada said õppeasutused, elumajad ja garaažid.

Tuletame meelde, et rünnak mobiliseeritud okupantide asukohale toimus vana-aasta õhtul. Vene Föderatsiooni kaitseministeerium teatas, et Makiivkas hukkunute arv Venemaa sõjaväelaste asukohale suunatud rünnaku tagajärjel on tõusnud 89 -ni . Mitteametlikel andmetel oli uusaastaööl tänu täpsele löögile Vene Föderatsiooni relvajõududega õnnestus Makiivkas likvideerida umbes 400 mobiliseeritud venelast ja umbes 300 sissetungijat sai erineva raskusastmega haavata.
Märgiti, et kohaliku kutsekooli nr 19 majas paiknesid vene sõdurid.

CensorNET kirjutab nii:..

Ukraina relvajõudude idarühma esindaja Serhi Tšerevatõ lükkas tagasi Venemaa kaitseministeeriumi avalduse massilise raketirünnaku kohta Kramatorskile, millest sai väidetavalt "kättemaksuoperatsioon" Ukraina poole rünnaku eest kutsekool Donetski oblastis Makejevkas. "See teave on sama tõene kui andmed selle kohta, et nad hävitasid kõik meie HIMARSid," tsiteerib Cherevatõt Ukrayinska Pravda. "See on Vene Föderatsiooni kaitseministeeriumi teabeoperatsioon vastuseks Ukraina relvajõudude edukatele tegevustele", mille eesmärk on hävitada Ukraina ülitäpse hävitamise süsteemidega Vene poole suured isikkoosseisu, laod ja logistika. «Neil pole sellist võimalust,» usub Tšerevatõ.

What am I supposed to think about this? What are your thoughts?
In my small unit alone, 3 of us fought in Syria against Jihadists. I know volunteers in Ukraine that would happily anyone with links to ISIS or Al Qaeda. This is strange, am I missing something?

It says "Abdul Hakim al-Shishani visited Kryvyi Rih" like something is up. The enemy of the enemy is now a friend.

Contacted Russian contacts in recent days, collected a lot of data and sorted out some loose ends.

Coming mobilization is going to bring about quite a bit and we are at a turning point in the war.
The new mobilization is going to be very intense for the Russians and cannot be compared to the first mobilization.
I start by explaining by first indicating what went wrong in that previous round.

2.
The first mobilization:

Officially 300,000 men would be mobilized. In fact, that number is much higher, they have not stopped after the 'rounding off'.
It is likely that around 400,000 to 450,000 have been mobilized by now.

3.
The mobilization was an organizational disaster on all fronts. Putin was furious about the turn of events.
Most of the mobilized were forced, very few people were willing and great effort was made to achieve the number.

4.
More than 2,000,000 men have fled the country.
Entrepreneurs, working men, well-educated and scholars. Strong men. 'Russia's finest' left immediately.
At that time there was no border control to Belarus, hundreds of thousands fled the country via that route.

5.
The mobilized did not force a breakthrough, but rather stagnated things. It was chaos.

- Poorly armed
- No training
- Good as 'cannon fodder'.

Russia has only lost ground since then. Nothing has been gained and hundreds of thousands have actually been sacrificed.

6.
Putin has intervened and ordered a drastically different approach.

The new mobilization:

On 2 November a new 'mobilization committee' was formed. This group of 'experts' had to set up the mobilization. This time nothing can go wrong.

7.
On 25 November, we started building a new database with a connection to:

- all government agencies
- all ministries
- the secret services (FSB, GRU and SVR)
- the border control services
- Municipalities
- Police
- Banks

Everyone can check by name.

8.
There is supposedly no escape anymore.
If one is in the database, one cannot escape it.
On December 27, the central bank linked all accounts of persons with debts/loans and those who do not pay alimony to the mobilization database.

9.
These people (with payment arrears) are mobilized first, together with convicts.
The border with Belarus will be closed (until now Russians could travel between the two countries without a visa).
The other borders are also being closed at the moment.

10.
The new mobilization must be done without fuss, not with a lot of 'hassle' like last time. Not openly but covertly, no publicly known mobilization offices but in silence. Without press/media.
Everything must be set up/completed by March.

11.
The mobilization starts on the 17th, first 'in silence'.
In March/April everything must run smoothly and there will be very large-scale mobilization, not 500,000, but continuously, initially at least 1 million (!!) men must be mobilized before May/June.

12.
Anyone attempting to evade mobilization will be rounded up and detained. They are then still forced into the army (separate unit that immediately goes to the front line).
Before the summer (May/June) they want at least 1,000,000 people for a major offensive.

13.
Many who fled earlier are back for Christmas with the thought that they can leave afterwards. Unfortunately, they no longer leave the country.
As of today, Christmas, the country will be locked.
Open mobilization starts between the 14th and the 17th. ukr. intel says: the 15th.

14.
Martial law will be proclaimed.
War economy will oblige all factories to produce for the war. So all clothing factories will make uniforms, metal factories will make weapons, engineering/steel/tractor factories will start producing vehicles.

15.
The 100k+ dead so far are 'nothing' in Putin's eyes, even if the upcoming 1 million mobilized will die it won't bother him.
He looks at the 20 million+ who died in WWII and Putin is willing to go at least that far.

16.
He will not deploy nukes, not at all.
He has been warned by the US & UK that they will immediately go on the attack.
He only considers it if Russia itself is going to be attacked.
If he tries to do this sooner, he will be settled internally.

17.
Conclusion:

The West must massively increase arms supplies and support Ukraine in the coming offensive to ensure that it can resist the onslaught of 1 million Russians as effectively as the past two waves (approx. 300k at the start and 300k after the 1st mobilization).

18.
So:

- More HIMARS and other equivalent systems
- Start immediately with delivery of tanks, many tanks
- Start with delivery of F16s and helicopters
- Supply gigantic amounts of ammo.

You can't wait months for this, then it's too late.

19/end.

Additional:

- There are currently 30 Ukrainian pilots being trained for the F16 in the US, those F16s will certainly be delivered.
- The offensive comes from the east as well as from Belarus (towards Kiev). Both with at least 500,000 troops.

This time nothing can go wrong.

14.
Martial law will be proclaimed.
War economy will oblige all factories to produce for the war. So all clothing factories will make uniforms, metal factories will make weapons, engineering/steel/tractor factories will start producing vehicles.

15.
The 100k+ dead so far are 'nothing' in Putin's eyes, even if the upcoming 1 million mobilized will die it won't bother him.
He looks at the 20 million+ who died in WWII and Putin is willing to go at least that far.