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As Meduza has previously reported, Putin really is considering the possibility of resuming the negotiations that stalled in spring 2022. At the same time, the president wants Russia to maintain control of the occupied Donbas territories — and “doesn’t even want to discuss Crimea.”

Military force without diplomacy cannot deliver lasting results

With Russian military setbacks in Ukraine and domestic challenges to the war’s conduct—on top of his confrontation with the collective West without the help of allies—Putin may well consider negotiated arrangements which could be acceptable to the West. This includes a ceasefire with some peacekeeping arrangements and rules of the game to make the ceasefire more lasting. Russia would have to give up its current position that all territories of the newly annexed provinces—including those currently under Ukrainian control—should belong to Russia. Russia would also need to relinquish its original demand of the removal of Zelensky’s government. Ukraine in turn would need to accept that those territories controlled by Russia would not be returned until subsequent negotiations. A ceasefire would also prohibit any sabotage or terrorist acts against Russia, something that Ukraine has increasingly practiced with NATO’s not-so-silent consent. The plan would additionally need to address sanctions: no new sanctions could be introduced while the ceasefire was in place, and there could be some relaxation of existing ones.

Kriku kirjutas: ↑17 Okt, 2022 8:37 Juba avalause on vähe imelik:

Military force without diplomacy cannot deliver lasting results

Kogu praegune Lääne-Euroopa poliitiline süsteem on üles ehitatud Hitleri vastase sõja tulemuste otsa.

Edasi ei lähe paremaks:

With Russian military setbacks in Ukraine and domestic challenges to the war’s conduct—on top of his confrontation with the collective West without the help of allies—Putin may well consider negotiated arrangements which could be acceptable to the West. This includes a ceasefire with some peacekeeping arrangements and rules of the game to make the ceasefire more lasting. Russia would have to give up its current position that all territories of the newly annexed provinces—including those currently under Ukrainian control—should belong to Russia. Russia would also need to relinquish its original demand of the removal of Zelensky’s government. Ukraine in turn would need to accept that those territories controlled by Russia would not be returned until subsequent negotiations. A ceasefire would also prohibit any sabotage or terrorist acts against Russia, something that Ukraine has increasingly practiced with NATO’s not-so-silent consent. The plan would additionally need to address sanctions: no new sanctions could be introduced while the ceasefire was in place, and there could be some relaxation of existing ones.

Et siis jätame Venemaale need alad, mis ta on suutnud ära vallutada, muidu tuleb tuumasõda

.. Ukraine in turn would need to accept that those territories controlled by Russia would not be returned until subsequent negotiations...

Pekkeri kirjutas: ↑17 Okt, 2022 9:30Aga pigem see üldine mõte, et seljavõit russide üle ei ole ilmselt võimalik ja valmis peab olema mingiks kompromissiks.

Kriku kirjutas: ↑17 Okt, 2022 9:35

Pekkeri kirjutas: ↑17 Okt, 2022 9:30Aga pigem see üldine mõte, et seljavõit russide üle ei ole ilmselt võimalik ja valmis peab olema mingiks kompromissiks.

Ei ole nõus.

Pekkeri kirjutas: ↑17 Okt, 2022 9:43Kas sa arvad siis, et vene vägede täielik lüüasaamine (k.a. Luhanksis, Donetskis ja Krimmis) on reaalne (siiras küsimus)?

Kriku kirjutas: ↑17 Okt, 2022 9:51

Pekkeri kirjutas: ↑17 Okt, 2022 9:43Kas sa arvad siis, et vene vägede täielik lüüasaamine (k.a. Luhanksis, Donetskis ja Krimmis) on reaalne (siiras küsimus)?

Jah.

Kriku kirjutas: ↑17 Okt, 2022 10:07 Selgitan.

Juba teema alguses kirjutasin, et Ukraina miinimumprogramm peab olema mandriosa, sh. Donetski ja Luganski oblastite täielik vabastamine ja pärivabariikide likvideerimine, muidu ei tulegi sellele kõigele lõppu. See on sõjategevuse praegust dünaamikat arvestades saavutatav.

Krimmi vabastamise jaoks on meil tegelikult omaette teema: https://www.militaar.net/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=51584 See sõltub minu arvates peamiselt sellest, kas ja kuidas õnnestub Krimmi isoleerida. Silda õnnestus hiljuti oluliselt vigastada, aga kardetavasti pole sooritus sellisel kujul (autopomm) korratav. Kui silda hakkavad tabama raketid, muutub Krimmi olukord väga keeruliseks.

Aga on väga kahtlane, kas Venemaa praegune režiim suudab üle elada kõike sedagi, mis kaasneb Ukraina mandriosa vabastamisega. Kui režiim laguneb, avanevad Ukrainale uued võimalused ka Krimmis.

Peeter kirjutas: ↑17 Okt, 2022 10:23Ja kui ei lagune, siis ei tule ka Vene-Ukraina rahu, vaid jääb üks piir/liin millel igal hetkel võib uus sõda puhkeda.