Moscow's War in Ukraine Relies on Local Assets
By Mark Galeotti Apr. 23 2014
It is hard to believe that substantial numbers of Russians can assemble military weapons and stroll across the border without Moscow being aware of it. Most likely, the Russian government is at least turning a blind eye to Russians taking part in the "self-defense forces" in eastern Ukraine when it isn't encouraging, arming and sometimes engaging them.
This is a crucial aspect of the new "great game" — the increasing penetration of military, political, intelligence and economic operations using a bewildering array of assets. These assets include Russian spies and provocateurs, mercenaries, local gangsters and even unknowing dupes. Moscow's signature new subversive strategy is a shadowy combination of war, terrorism, subversion and diplomacy. The West is clearly ill-equipped to respond to this type of warfare.
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/opinion/a ... 98851.htmlThis strategy of undermining Kiev is cheap, easy, cynical and effective. But it also means that when some kind of political settlement is reached, it will be harder to control these militants.
Just as Maidan Square, the source of a popular uprising, has become the crucible of violent nationalism, the militants from the pro-Russian side have dug in their heels in the battle for Ukraine. They will unlikely be comfortable returning to their normal lives. It is hard to see the thugs of Slovyansk and Mariupol duly handing in their shiny new guns. The new breed of local "commanders"— often linked with organized crime — will need to be co-opted or crushed.
In short, Moscow's decision not to fight this conflict through conventional means and with its own men may mean that it wins the war, but it will have a much harder time keeping the peace after that.
