Vene-Ukraina sõda II osa

[nimetu]

Ausalt öeldes muutuksin mina murelikuks kui planeerijaid olekski ainult viis.

[laifstaile]

Midagi olla Pentagonist lekkinud seoses Ukraina planeerimisega...
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/06/us/p ... ussia.html

[Kriku]

Ukraine war plans leak prompts Pentagon investigation
By Eric Schmitt and Helene Cooper
The New York Times

WASHINGTON — Classified war documents detailing secret U.S. and NATO plans for building up the Ukrainian military before a planned offensive against Russia were posted this week on social media channels, senior Biden administration officials said.

The Pentagon is investigating who may have been behind the leak of the documents, which appeared on Twitter and on Telegram, a platform with more than half a billion users that is widely available in Russia.

Military analysts said the documents appear to have been modified in certain parts from their original format, overstating U.S. estimates of Ukrainian war dead and understating estimates of Russian troops killed.

The modifications could point to an effort of disinformation by Moscow, the analysts said. But the disclosures in the original documents, which appear as photographs of charts of anticipated weapons deliveries, troop and battalion strengths, and other plans, represents a significant breach of U.S. intelligence in the effort to aid Ukraine.

Biden officials were working to get them deleted but had not, as of Thursday evening, succeeded.

“We are aware of the reports of social media posts and the department is reviewing the matter,” said Sabrina Singh, the deputy press secretary at the Pentagon.

The documents do not provide specific battle plans, like how, when and where Ukraine intends to launch its offensive, which U.S. officials say is likely coming in the next month or so. And because the documents are 5 weeks old, they offer a snapshot of time — the American and Ukrainian view, as of March 1, of what Ukrainian troops might need for the campaign.

To the trained eye of a Russian war planner, field general or intelligence analyst, however, the documents no doubt offer many tantalizing clues. The documents mention, for instance, the expenditure rate of HIMARS — U.S.-supplied high mobility artillery rocket systems, which can launch attacks against targets like ammunition dumps, infrastructure and concentrations of troops, from a distance. The Pentagon has not said publicly how fast Ukrainian troops are using the HIMARS munitions; the documents do.

Analysts said Friday that it would be difficult to assess the impact of the documents’ disclosure on the front-line fighting now and in the coming months. Russia’s own recent offensive has struggled to make gains in eastern Ukraine, and Western analysts debate whether the Russian military, after suffering staggering casualties, is capable of mounting another or resisting a Ukrainian attack.

It was unclear how the documents ended up on social media. But pro-Russian government channels have been sharing and circulating the briefing slides, military analysts said.

The analysts warned that documents released by Russian sources could be selectively altered to present the Kremlin’s disinformation.

“Whether these documents are authentic or not, people should take care with anything released by Russian sources,” said Michael Kofman, the director of Russian studies at CNA, a research institute in Arlington, Virginia.

One of the slides said 16,000 to 17,500 Russian soldiers had been killed while Ukraine had suffered as many as 71,500 troop deaths. The Pentagon and other analysts have estimated that Russia has suffered far more casualties, with closer to 200,000 killed and injured, while Ukraine has had more than 100,000 killed and injured.

Nonetheless, analysts said parts of the documents appeared authentic and would provide Russia with valuable information such as the timetables for the delivery of weapons and troops, Ukrainian troop buildup numbers and other military details.

A document labeled “top secret” offers the “Status of the Conflict as of 1 Mar.” On that day, Ukrainian officials were at a U.S. base in Weisbaden, Germany, for war game sessions, and a day later, Gen. Mark Milley, the chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and Gen. Christopher Cavoli, the supreme allied commander for Europe, visited the sessions.

Another document includes columns that list Ukrainian troop units, equipment and training, with schedules for January through April. The document contains a summary of 12 combat brigades that are being assembled, with nine of them apparently being trained and supplied by the United States and other NATO allies. Of those nine brigades, the documents said that six would be ready by March 31 and the rest by April 30. A Ukrainian brigade has about 4,000 to 5,000 soldiers, analysts said.

The document said that equipment delivery times would impact training and readiness in order to meet the timeline. Total equipment needed for nine brigades, the document said, was more than 250 tanks and more than 350 mechanized vehicles.

That the documents could be posted on a widely dispersed social media channel, and presumably get into the hands of Russian officials, is a big coup for Moscow at a time when Russia had appeared to be trailing the United States in intelligence gathering in Ukraine.

The leak is the first Russian intelligence breakthrough that has been made public since the war began. Throughout the war, the United States has provided Ukraine with information on command posts, ammunition depots and other key nodes in the Russian military lines. Such real-time intelligence has allowed the Ukrainians to target Russian forces, kill senior generals and force ammunition supplies to be moved farther from the Russian front lines, although U.S. officials say Ukraine has played the decisive role in planning and execution of those strikes.

But early on during the war, Ukrainian officials were hesitant about sharing their battle plans with the United States, for fear of leaks, American and European officials said. As recently as last summer, U.S. intelligence officials said they often had a better understanding of Russia’s military plans than of Ukraine’s.

Concerned that sharing their operation plans could also highlight weaknesses and discourage continued U.S. support, the Ukrainians were closely guarding them even as U.S. intelligence was gathering precise details on what the Kremlin was ordering and Russian commanders were planning.

The intelligence sharing between Ukraine and the United States loosened up considerably last fall, and the two countries have been working closely on options for a Ukrainian offensive.

But an intelligence leak of this sort, posted on social media and available around the world, is bound to harm intelligence sharing between Ukraine and the United States.

This story was originally published at nytimes.com.

[hjl85]

Midagi olla Pentagonist lekkinud seoses Ukraina planeerimisega...
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/06/us/p ... ussia.html

https://twitter.com/feher_junior/status ... FuRPhYrC3Q
Brigaadide koosseis, arvatavad kaotused jne. Ise arvan, et see psyop
https://twitter.com/noclador/status/164 ... FuRPhYrC3Q

One more thing: I already see journalists refer to the leaked JSC briefing slides as "plans".

These files ARE NOT A PLAN!!!

They are part of the daily briefing for Pentagon leaders on all things/events/statistics related to the war in Ukraine

Kui ei ole psyop siis lekitas need mõni USA ohvitser. Nii arvab Theiner

Pentagon uurib https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... -documents

[Roamless]

Kui ei ole psyop siis lekitas need mõni USA ohvitser. Nii arvab Theiner

Lekkest on tehtud psyop, ehk venkude kaotused on keeratud naeruväärselt marginaalseteks ja ukrainlaste omad lendavad otse kosmosesse. Siit tuleb jälle välja see, et vasjad ei oska usutavalt võltsida, kui said mingi Trumpi fännist ohvitseri kaudu küüned taha mingile Pentagoni briifingule ja keerasid sinna oma muinasjutuarvud juurde, ning lükkasid sotsiaalmeediasse.

[RandomGuy]

https://twitter.com/anno1540/status/1644275010360553472

Siin see teine pilt on huvitav. GMLRS kokku lastud 9612 tükki, 155mm kokku lastud 952856 tükki(viimase 24 tunni jooksul 1104 tükki). Ja siis veel "US/NATO SOF in UKR".

[_dumbuser_]

Kui keegi soovib teenida pool miljonit siis siinkohal on üks pakkumine. https://mobile.twitter.com/nexta_tv/sta ... 8365915140

[kmeesk]

Ausalt öeldes muutuksin mina murelikuks kui planeerijaid olekski ainult viis.

Kuskil pole öeldud, et planeerijaid on ainult viis. Väidetakse, et teadjaid on 5 tükki. Plaani koostamiseks pole ju vaja konkreetset kuupäeva ja asukohta ju vaja. Sõjaväe tööpõhimõte on ju see, et efektiivseks toimimiseks tuleb koostada meeletu hulk igasugu plaane ja igasugu stsenaariumite jaoks. Kui sa lähed täna ja võtad mõne plaani kaasa salaja, siis tõenäoliselt on tegu valede plaanidega. Pealetungi teadmiseks on vaja teada saada nende 5 inimese käest pealetungi ülisalajased prioriteedid ja siis saaks otsida nende prioriteetidega sobivat plaani ja nüüd on võimalus salaja see plaan kopeerida ja teada saada suur pealetungiplaan. Kui sa vahele jääd, siis need 5 inimest keeravad prioriteete ja nüüd on õige plaan mõni teine hoopis.
Need 5 inimest omavad võtit, et teada, mis seal makulatuuri kuhjas tegelikku väärtust omab.

[maksipoiss]

Kui keegi soovib teenida pool miljonit siis siinkohal on üks pakkumine. https://mobile.twitter.com/nexta_tv/sta ... 8365915140

Kommentaarid on head

[rain128]

Kui ei ole psyop siis lekitas need mõni USA ohvitser. Nii arvab Theiner

Lekkest on tehtud psyop, ehk venkude kaotused on keeratud naeruväärselt marginaalseteks ja ukrainlaste omad lendavad otse kosmosesse. Siit tuleb jälle välja see, et vasjad ei oska usutavalt võltsida, kui said mingi Trumpi fännist ohvitseri kaudu küüned taha mingile Pentagoni briifingule ja keerasid sinna oma muinasjutuarvud juurde, ning lükkasid sotsiaalmeediasse.

Just lõpetasin Rainer Saksa raamatu lugemise (ukraina sõja päevikud), seal oli ka läbiv teema et nagu venkudel raskeks läks siis hakkasid igasugused huvitavat lood mida kontrollida ei saanud äkitselt ilmuma.

Nõustun eelnevaga, et venelane on ikka loll olla, kui sellised ajuvad numbrid sisse kirjutad siis kaob kahtlus kus kohast lugu tekkis. Ilmselt on see venemaa sisetarbimiseks mõeldud uudis, et seda saavad sõjardid rossija1 kanalis jahvatada.

[RandomGuy]

https://twitter.com/AricToler/status/16 ... 1088622616

Väidetavalt on neid lekkinud dokumente erinevatel andmetel 100+ ja juba Veebruari lõpust saati neid kuskile Discordi serverisse postitati.

https://twitter.com/War_cube_/status/16 ... 1627370498

Siin kaks slaidi õhutõrje seisust, et mis saama hakkab kui juurde ei tarnita ja samas tempos edasi kasutada... "lähiplaanis tuleb rohkem valida mida lasta ja võimalusel rakette juurde tarnida, ja pikas plaanis tuleb NATO õhutõrje süsteemidele üle minna".

[Gideonic]

https://twitter.com/War_cube_/status/16 ... 1627370498

Siin kaks slaidi õhutõrje seisust, et mis saama hakkab kui juurde ei tarnita ja samas tempos edasi kasutada... "lähiplaanis tuleb rohkem valida mida lasta ja võimalusel rakette juurde tarnida, ja pikas plaanis tuleb NATO õhutõrje süsteemidele üle minna".

Väga-väga halb.

• S-300 ja BUK moodustavad endiselt 90% kogu Ukraina kesk- ja pikamaa õhutõrjest.
• Kui 1. märtsil mainitud kasutustemp jätkus on BUK raketid praeguseks juba otsas
• S-300 raketid saavad otsa vähem kui kuu jooksul (2. maiks).

Ehk siis 90% kogu Ukraina keskmaa- ja kaugmaa õhutõrjest peaks saama otsa juba lähinädalatel.
EDIT - tegelt isegi rohkem, sest IRIS-T ja NASAMS laskemoon on ka selle pildi järgi samast lõimest juba otsas.

Selle järgi on asi õhutõrjega ikka täiesti pekkis. Läänest ei tule praeguse seisuga kuskilt võrreldavas koguses süsteeme peale, selleks peaks need kõik juba laevadega teel olema ja meeksonnad treenitud. Olukorda saab leevendada ainult see kui S-300 ja BUKi moona suudetakse juurde tarnida (mida on ka pidevalt tehtud) aga see on lahendus ainult väga lühikeses plaanis.

Ettevalmistatavaid rünnaku-brigaade on Ukrainal samuti ainult 9, milles NATO poolt relvastatud ainult 6 ja sedagi kahjuks väga hädiselt (Lubatud CV-90 ja Archeri osas näiteks pole isegi kuulda olnud et oleks alustatud).

Siililegi selge et seda on misiganes mastaapse suurrünnaku jaoks naeruväärselt vähe, seda enam et need peaks nüüd ründama ilma keskmaa-õhutõrje toeta - Kolmekordselt dubleeritud, mineeritud, ja sissekaevatud liine, mida toetab ka vene õhuvägi. Igasugu läbimurded lähevad varem või hiljem miinile ja hävitaakse kaugtule tonniste FAB pommide jms.

Sellises seisus olekski pigem parem kui Ukraina ei korraldakski sel aastal mingeid suuri rünnakuid. Teeks vaid kõvasti info-oppe ja ründaks ainult piiratud mahus ja lokaalselt.

[rain128]

Kuhu te jooksete paanikas? Kui ukrainal oleks õhutõrje päriselt otsas siis mis oleks esimene asi mis nad teeksid? Zelinski teeks oma kolmanda worldtouri ja kerjaks nagu viimane päev oleks käes õhutõrjet juurde.

[Siga]

S-300 ja BUK moodustavad endiselt 90% kogu Ukraina kesk- ja pikamaa õhutõrjest.
Kui 1. märtsil mainitud kasutustemp jätkus on BUK raketid praeguseks juba otsas
S-300 raketid saavad otsa vähem kui kuu jooksul (2. maiks).

USA Avenger AN/TWQ-1 õhutõrje raketisüsteemid on väidetavalt kohale jõudnud.
https://www.armyrecognition.com/ukraine ... t=cmp-true

[ekacariya]

Need numbrid võivad samuti võltsitud olla, nagu hukkunute arvud...tegelikult ei imestaks ka kui kogu see leke on võltsing