Tom Cooper ka uue postitusega hakkama saanud. Kuidagi väga üli-positiivne, nii et võta või kerge skepsisega.
https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/uk ... 3-hill-166
See lennukite jutu juures oli isenesest huvitav see, et Soltsõ õhutõrje oli väidetavalt ära viidud Moskvat kaitsma:
…then, early in the morning, Ukrainians attacked the Soltsy-2 Air Base in the Novogorod region of the Russian Federation. Some 600km north of the border to Ukraine, and then – reportedly – by several quadcopters. One of UAVs hit a Tupolev Tu-22M-3 bomber while this was being refuelled, causing a conflagration: reportedly, two bombers were blown up, and a third damaged so severely that it was rendered irreparable. Latest reports are indicating 6-7 killed (including at least one pilot and four of the ground crew), and another 11 wounded. According to Russian reports, the air defences of this base were weakened: all radars and SAMs were withdrawn to bolster the defence of Moscow, and thus limited to ‘few Kalashnikovs’. Four refurbished Kh-22 missiles and one fuel truck were destroyed, too.
Samas natukene kahtlane tundub mulle see jutt "kahest õhkulastud ja ühest vigastatud pommitajast", kui pilte on päris mitu, aga kõik on ainult ühest lennukist. Välistada muidugi ei saa aga kõhutunde pealt tundub selline mõne tema Ukraina allika väljamõeldud teema (sest kust see täpne info pärineb).
Muus osas tundub päris huvitav. Tom ei ole vähemasti selle viimase pealetungi ajal ühegi asula vabastamist valesti ennustanud, kuigi mõnede puhul teatas teistest vähemasti nädal varem et asi on tehtud (Klišiivka) näiteks.
Robotõne kohta väidab et sisuliselt löödi vatid linnast lõunas olevale kaevikuliinile juba mõnda aega tagasi, aga linn vajas kõvast puhastamist (ja sinna püsivalt jalga sättida pigem ei saanud/tasunud). Minuteada oli ta esimene kes väitis et kaitseliinidel on edasi tungitud ka sellest linnast Idas (siis kui veel OSINT kaartidel ei olnud seal midagi). Nüüdseks vähemasti on ka teised kontod oma jooni sealpool nihutanud.
Igatahes tema viimati kajastatud seis oli selline:
Robotyne…about a week ago, the 58th CAA first stuffed the 291st MRB, 1430th and 1441st MRRs, plus a battalion of the 810th Naval Infantry Brigade into Robotyne, then withdrew most of them from into a trench complex south of the village, while bringing the 56th and 108th VDV and the 201st MRR (the latter is known as the ‘Platovsky Regiment’ or ‘Kadiev’s Cossacks’, i.e. it’s a ‘people’s militia’ unit from Luhansk) into Novoprokopivka.
For its part, sometimes on 18 or 19 August, the ZSU – after running a diversionary attack on Nestryanka (about 10km west of Robotyne) to prevent the command of the 58th CAA from deploying yet more troops into the Robotyne area - should have launched a major attack south-east of the village.
Now, there’s some confusion about exactly what units were (and still are) involved. Some are still mentioning the 47th Mech, although this is said to have been withdrawn from the line, following the loss of some 25 of its M2/M3 Bradleys destroyed and another 25 (‘or so’) badly damaged, over the last two months. Anyway, the ‘possible 47th Mech’, plus the 65th Mech, 82nd Airborne, 118th and 116th Mech (some say 117th, not 116th… could be a typo?) should have resumed their assault past the village in southern direction.
Reportedly, in the West, the 65th broke through the Russian line west of Robotyne, and should be advancing in southern direction.
In the East… well, it’s unclear who exactly, but one of Ukrainian units should’ve captured the Hill 166, on the Russian ‘1st (Big) Defence Line’, between Novoprokopivka and Verbove, defeating the BARS-3 and BARS-14 in the process.
For details on why is this hill so important, please see here: essentially, it’s the highest elevation in this part of Ukraine, overlooking everything – from Robotyne in the north, to Tokmak in the south. I doubt the battle for this hill is over: the Russians are certain to undertake everything in their powers to recover it, though. (As for why ‘Hill 166’: if they don’t know about specific names, military mappers tend to name hills by their elevation. Thus, this one is ‘Hill 166’ because it’s 166m above the sea surface.)
Finally, either ‘fierce fighting’ or ‘massive artillery barrages’ are reported from inside Novoprokopivka, south of Robotyne: either Ukrainians already breached the defences of the 56th and 108th VDV and the 201st MRR, or they’re shelling the place ‘like mad’ in order to prepare their attack.
Ever since, Russian contacts are reporting something like ‘collapse of their frontline’….though I’m not sure exactly where…
Märgiliseim on võibolla see mainitud 166m mäe vabastamine. Kui see tõele vastab, ja Ukrainlased seda ka kindlustada suudavad on see vähermalt kahel põhjusel märgiline:
1. See peaks olema kõrgeim tipp sealkandis ja edasi on Tokmaki poole ainult allamäge (tehes igasuguse vastase jälgimise, tuletellimise, ka kopterite vastase õhutõrje märksa lihtsamaks).
2. See on selgelt vattide selle teise kaitseliini taga olev postitsioon.
Muidugi tasub seda juttu võtta (vähemalt veel esialgu) tugeva skeptitsismiga.
See on ikka üsna kaugel sealt mida ka kõige optimistlikumad "kaardijoonistajad" näitavad ja isegi sinna suudeti jõuda, võib arvata et vatid on nõus palju reserve kulutama et seda hoida või tagasi võtta. Scribblemapsi peal oleks see:
Miks ma usun et skeptitsism on tugevalt põhjendatud.
Loomulikult oleks äärmiselt tore kui see tõele vastab, aga tavaliselt ei kipu sellised asjad nii olema '
Üldjuhul kilkaks suurtest "peagi avaldatavatest edusammudest" siis juba pool Ukraina sotsmeediat. Aga elame-näeme.
